|The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number 641739.|
Get access to the BINGO project outputs.
Dynamical downscaling of European reanaysis to 12km and daily values for the period 1979/2014
The European Reanalysis project (ERA-Interim) data has been dynamically downscaled to a 0.11 degree resolution (about 12km) using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. Those surface variables relevant for hydrological modelling (e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind, pressure, etc) have been bias corrected at the daily time scale and made available for use with hydrological models.
A web-based and on-demand extraction and conversion tool was set up, allowing the hydrological modelling groups to search and extract the data and then convert it to their needs.
This project deliverable (in particular, values for periods 2009-2015 and 1979-1989) can be made available upon request. If you’re interested in having access to the data, get in contact with us.
Characterization of the catchments and the water systems
This deliverable evaluates the state of water resources (surface and groundwater, quantity and quality) at the six BINGO research sites. A consistent characterization of the catchments and surface, groundwater, and estuarine water bodies, including land use, pollution sources and anthropogenic water abstractions is included. It includes measured data, results from previous research, literature, knowledge. This document serves as an overview of all six BINGO research sites.
Context for risk assessment at the six research sites, including criteria to be used in risk assessment
This deliverable aims at setting up a common and clear understanding of all important variables at each research site, taking into consideration the end user’s views for the choice of the criteria and methodologies to be used. This report will be the basis for the future development of the three steps of risk assessment that will be performed in WP4: risk identification (Task 4.2) and risk analysis and risk evaluation (Task 4.3), and provide important input and basic information about the research sites into the work done in WP5.
Future Land and Water Use Scenarios
This document reports the future land and water use scenarios at the six BINGO research sites. The scenarios consist of qualitative developments, for each of two future scenarios Economy First and Sustainability Eventually, developed within SCENES at the research sites. These qualitative developments are then translated into quantitative land use and water use tables. Prior to the results, the scope and methodology are explained and justified in the respective chapters. The results from this deliverable will be used to analyze the effect of land and water use on the hydrology of the research sites, compared to the effects of extreme weather events.
Calibrated water resources models for past conditions
This Deliverable presents the model applications at all six research sites. Special focus in this Deliverable is being paid to the modelling objectives, the model types, the data used and produced, the model results, as well as the model evaluation and discussion. D3.3 shows the wide variability of models developed and applied in order to bring innovation into water management practices. This is due to the fact that European water problems are diverse and BINGO aims at providing as many solutions as possible to mitigate those climate change related problems.
Report on the assessment of the current governance situation and recommendations for improvement at the research sites using the three layer framework (part 1)
Deliverable 5.4 assesses the current policy and governance contexts for adaptation to climate change at the six BINGO research sites. For each research site, governance strengths and weaknesses are identified, based on which recommendation for improvement are offered. The report finds a common governance strength in a strong capacity to deal with existing water-related risks. For example, the Netherlands deals well with water safety risks, Cyprus has a clear policy framework on water scarcity and in the Norwegian city of Bergen, waste water risks are well managed. The downside of this focus on present-day risks is that new risks posed by climate change are insufficiently taken into account. Thus, health risks in Cyprus and the Netherlands and the risk of storm floods in Bergen remain largely untreated. The high degree of governmental fragmentation is identified as another common governance challenge. Because of this, information about the local water system is scattered and coordinative efforts, key to developing adaptation strategies, are hampered.
Definition of extremal circulation patterns, present climate
This deliverable addresses the issue of identifying large scale atmospheric patterns with high probability of producing extreme precipitation events for the RS. The Wupper catchment, located in West Germany, has been used in this text to exemplify the approach followed in WP2. The methods used here combine the definition of weather types based on a sophisticated clustering algorithm (Simulated ANnealing and Diversified RAndomisation, SANDRA) and a regression approach based on a logistic model (special case of generalized linear models, GLM). This combination exploits the benefits of including highly non-linear drivers of extreme precipitation via a discrete set of weather types and the flexibility of a generalized linear model to include continuous variables such as convectively available potential energy (CAPE), relative humidity and wind speed.
This revised version of the deliverable report has been amended to (i) take account of the latest status of the availability of the high-resolution test-simulations for the Tagus research site (page 6), which are now fully available, and (ii) to clarify that the Cyprus research site employs the same methodology for the identification of extremal weather patterns as the other research sites (page 10), albeit with a slightly different modelling strategy (page 6).
Ensembles for present climate extremal episodes downscaled to 7km/6h (3-1km/1h); maps of return levels for Cyprus research site
This deliverable consists of data for present climate extremal pattern episodes (15 days duration) downscaled to 12km and 4km/6h (20 ensemble members) and to 1km/1h (5 ensemble members) for the Cyprus research site. Five extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from observations and were dynamically downscaled from the ERA-Interim (EI) dataset with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), for 15-day periods centered around the peak of each event. For validation we used a 1-km gridded observational dataset over Cyprus. Additionally, we explored the potential added value gained from the EI downscaling with WRF. This was done in both terms of timing and rainfall amounts for each horizontal resolution nest of the downscaling process. Simulations with WRF captured rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean reasonably well for three of the five selected extreme events. For these three cases, the higher spatial resolution WRF simulations were found to improve the ERA-Interim precipitation amounts, which strongly underestimated these rainfall extremes over Cyprus. The best model performance was obtained for the January 1989 event, which was simulated with an average negative bias of 4% and a modified Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.72 for a 5-member ensemble of the 1-km simulations. Our 1-km simulations overall indicate a higher added value, especially over regions of highelevation. Interestingly, for some cases the intermediate 4-km nest was found to outperform the 1-km simulations for low-elevation coastal parts of Cyprus.
Data downscaled to 12km/daily, Europe, for the period 2015-2024
This deliverable describes the decadal predictions (2015-2024) produced by WP2, to be subsequently used as input data for the hydrological models used in WP3. The data have been dynamically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (12 km) and are available at a daily frequency. As with all data produced in Work Package 2 (see, e.g., Deliverable 2.1), the data are available to all project partners via the online Freva portal, where the data is converted to a format suitable for specific hydrological models and the option of applying a bias correction to the data is also available.
Present climate extremal episodes downscaled to 2km/1h / maps of return levels
This deliverable provides two key results to the BINGO Research Sites’ modelling groups: a) spatial maps of return levels for extreme precipitation and b) ensembles of high-resolution regional climate model simulations for a resolution of 2.2km and 1 hour, carried out for a set of episodes in the recent climate period which are prone to extreme precipitation (extremal episodes). The regional climate model simulations were realised with the COSMO-CLM for all sites except Cyprus. The associated simulations for the Cyprus Research Site have been carried out with WRF and are presented in D2.5.
Ensembles for decadal prediction extremal episodes downscaled to 3-1km/ 1h); Spatial stochastic precipitation generator for catchments
This deliverable consists of two components. First, a spatial stochastic precipitation generator is developed for the catchments. Second, extremal episodes are identified from the decadal predictions and downscaled with the COSMO-CLM to a resolution of 2.2-km and 1 hour for all sites except Veluwe (see changes with respect to the DoW) and Cyprus. The corresponding high-resolution downscaling for Cyprus is performed with WRF and presented in D2.7.
Ensembles for decadal predictions extremal episodes downscaled to 1km1h for Cyprus research site
This deliverable is about the generation of high temporal and spatial resolution data for future extremal precipitation episodes (15 days duration). This was achieved by applying the dynamical downscaling method. Three extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from the global MiKlip decadal prediction system. Then they were dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), for 15-day periods centred over the peak of each event. An ensemble set of five model configurations was used for the downscaling.
Stochastic weather generator producing large ensembles for decadal predictions
This deliverable extends the stochastic precipitation generator built in D2.6 to a precipitation guided conditional stochastic weather generator. Given a set of driving variables (the conditions) from a large scale simulation and the precipitation fields (from D2.6), this generator is capable of simulating large ensembles of 2-dimensional fields of various climate variables requested by the research sites’ modelling groups at 1-km spatial resolution.
Maps of IDF curves
This deliverable present return-levels for extreme precipitation events for the research sites Badalona, Bergen, Tagus and Wupper for various return-periods and event durations d (accumulation periods). These return-levels have been obtained based on a duration-dependent Generalized Extreme Value distribution (dd-GEV) with spatial covariates.
Portfolio of Adaptation Measures
This document provides a guidance to the online Portfolio of adaptation measures that was developed within the BINGO project. It means to assist regional stakeholders with the development of local adaptation strategies. By linking adaptation measures to the risks identified at the research sites (which are: decreases in the availability and quality of fresh water due to droughts, (flash) floods and the risk of combined sewage overflow), the sectors primarily affected by these risks (Water Resource Management, Flood Management, Urban Drainage, Public Water Supply, Agriculture), and finally, the character of the adaptation measure (soft/structural), the Portfolio helps the stakeholders to find adaptation measures that are tailored to their specific needs and interests.
Compilation report on initial workshops at the six research sites
This report gives a summary of the reports of the first two series workshops of the BINGO project. The workshops were held at the six research sites in month 8 and month 15 of the BINGO project. The first series of workshops focused in risk identification, while the second series had preparedness at the heart of the debate.
Interim portfolio of actionable research problems/challenges exploitation and development
This deliverable summarises the outcomes of the actionable research conducted between BINGO researchers and stakeholders. The actionable research labs accommodated in the M28 workshops enabled researchers and stakeholders to work together in real time, sharing their different experience and knowledge on the ‘unsolvable’ problems, identifying, prototyping and testing actionable solutions.
First Version of the Exploitation Plan
This Exploitation Plan is grounded on the added value and data generated by the project to ensure maximum benefit from it. The Exploitation Plan contains a strategy for the exploitation of the project outputs and results, which is focused on concrete tools and activities to reach the target audiences in order to ensure that the project outputs and results are used in further activities. In addition, the Exploitation Plans contains the next steps that are foreseen to be implemented in order to ensure the exploitation of the project results during and after its life cycle.
Model results for water and land use scenarios at the six research sites completed and analysed
More than 20 hydrological models have been to applied, driven with climatic decadal predictions until 2024. The model results focus on multiple water related problems and scales, such as flooding by combined sewer overflows in Badalona, Spain and Bergen, Norway, changes in groundwater recharge for drinking water abstraction in the Veluwe, the Netherlands, altered reservoir management in the Wupper river basin, Germany and in Bergen, Norway, flooding problems in Cyprus, and increasing salinization in Portugal. The model applications have also shown, that in some cases anticipated land use and water use changes can have large impacts on water resources, especially in combination with climate change effects, such as increases in floods and droughts. This deliverable also combines different bottom-up approaches on predicting short-term effects until 2024 by pointing out synergies between sites and methods.