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BINGO is a 48 month Horizon 2020 Climate Action project launched in July 2015.  
   
BINGO aims at providing practical knowledge and tools to end users, water managers, decision and policy makers affected by climate change to enable them to better cope with all climate projections, including droughts and floods. The focus is on six regions across Europe – in Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Spain.
 
For more information about BINGO, visit: www.projectbingo.eu
 
     
 
 
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Message from the Project Coordinator
 
 
 

Dear reader,

We are now in BINGO M42, meaning that we have six months ahead to the ending of our project. Since the start of the project, in 2015, BINGO was present in 70 diverse events, in 5 continents, 22 countries, and reached an audience over 72 000 people!
We have by now finalized the risk analysis and evaluation with the estimated level of risk for each event /scenario for the six research sites as well as the identification of the most relevant risks. We are progressing, together with our stakeholders, in the cost-benefit analysis of the selected adaptation strategies and measures.
BINGO team takes part of the organization of ECCA2019 both at the Executive, Organizing and Local Advisory Committees, having had in the last semester of 2018 a relevant amount of work. As participant, BINGO team submitted 21 abstracts for oral and poster presentations, and 2 sessions with other H2020 climate action projects and contributed also with 15 Reviewers and Conveners. We thus believe that are in the right path to ensure a good impact in ECCA, with gains for the overall ECCA value. November 2018 brought the good news that BINGO was the winner of the PT Global Awards, in the category of Research & Innovation! Two Portuguese State Secretaries were present when the prize was publicly announced, in recognition of the work done by BINGO in the internationalization of the Portuguese Water cluster. It inspires us to promote BINGO life and legacy beyond the project life time.
And now it’s the right time to wish you an excellent New year 2019! We are now joining forces again, with renovated energy and inspiration for an outstanding BINGO closure and involvement in ECCA2019.


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Rafaela Matos
Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal
BINGO Project Coordinator


 
 
 
 
PROJECT NEWS
 
 
ECCA 2019 – Latest news
 
 
 
Early bird registration image
 

Early-bird registration

Registration is now open – make the most of our early-bird discount by registering before 15 February. We also have a special rate for students, and single day rates if you are unable to join us for the whole conference.

Excursions

Before you click on the register button, take a look at the conference-closing excursions to explore adaptation and resilience in action in and around Lisbon and surrounding municipalities. The options include visits to blue and green infrastructure projects, how the urban water cycle is managed, and agricultural and rural activities. More information is available from the website.

Conference dinner

Our conference dinner will be held at LXFactory, a vibrant cultural centre of cafés, restaurants, shops and office spaces in a former textile factory. A Portuguese folk concert and dancing will follow to help you get to know your fellow delegates!
 
 
 

 
 
BINGO receives prize in PT Global Water Awards
 
 
 
Bingo receives prize
 

The BINGO project has been selected as the winner of the "RDI" category of the PT Global Water Awards, awarding transnational initiatives of research, development and/or innovation.

The winners were revealed yesterday in Lisbon, in the prize-giving ceremony of the 2nd edition of PT Global Water Awards within the 13 th Expo Conference for Water.

Organised by the Portuguese Partnership for Water and the newspaper "Água&Ambiente" (Grupo AboutMedia), and supported by both the Ministries of Environment and Energy Transition (MATE) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MNE), the PT Global Water Awards are an initiative which distinguishes the internationalisation of the portuguese water sector. Besides RDI, the event also awarded prizes in the categories of Endeavours, Supply, Services and Start-ups.

The ceremony was chaired by the Portuguese State Secretary for the Environment and Energy Transition and the Portuguese State Secretary for Internationalisation.

The award was granted to LNEC, the coordinator of the BINGO project, and received by Eng. Rafaela Matos.

 
 

 
 
BINGO climate model data (CCLM)
 
 
 
Climate model data
 
All climate model data (CCLM) produced by WP2 have been successfully transferred to the long term climate data archive in Hamburg (CERA), Here they will remain stored for at least 10 years after the end of the BINGO project. The data are all open access, following the BINGO/H2020 requirements. They can thus be downloaded by anyone, after they register an account at the CERA. The data have received the following permanent links: Additionally, we have also archived all of the extremal episodes used in our recent publication in HESS. These data have also received a permanent link and are available under the same license here: Please note that these archives contain the raw model output. The post-processed data specific to each site is only available via DECO. To learn more about BINGO's climate data, read this.
 
 

 
 
European Policy Booklet on Climate Change Adaptation
 
 

In the spirit of the European Policy Booklet on Climate Change Adaptation , a report which looks at projects on the topic of Climate Change Adaptation and explores the role of Research and Innovation on finding solutions for adaptation and mitigation, BINGO considers that to address climate change we need better and earlier knowledge about the future state of the climate and more participatory governance practices to identify risks and instigate adaptation measures.

Our project focuses on the link between state-of-the art climate science and the real challenges that local stakeholders face which is thus key to the joint specification and implementation of adaptation measures. The community-based co-production for applied research products in BINGO’s approach is vital: the greater buy-in of assessments beyond just researchers the greater likelihood of well informed, science-based adaptation.

The co-prodution dynamics have pushed the launch of participatory governance solutions and ensure better decision making, providing outputs and recommendations to integrate both exposures (data) and adaptation (actions), while incorporating what matters in each site with Human Factor Dynamics.

 
 
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Not yet following our Twitter? Join us to have a great start to this year
and stay updated with the latest news of BINGO. Follow us!

 
 
 
 
The Journey of The BINGO CoPs
 

Check out how BINGO has influenced
the end-users in the Lisbon
Community of Practice

 
 
 
 
Testimonials from the last BINGO workshop
in Lisbon, February 2016
 
 
 
 
Testimonials from the last BINGO workshop
in Lisbon, October 2018
 
 
 
 
Stakeholder perspectives from Germany on the BINGO experience
 
 
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picture“Everybody had their own perspective on climate change. (…) One main issue (…) is that there are a lot things already done here at this site of the BINGO project: there are several groups, some steering groups and others, who work on the issue of climate change, but – at this stage – we have a lack of transformation and a lack of communication between the scientific people and the affected people, for example inhabitants or firms and enterprises who have to deal with storm water.”
Andreas Hein,
Head of department Water Economics, IWW Water Centre
 
 
 
  Testimonials from our researchers
 
 
 
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Being a member of the BINGO family is, to me, both an honor and a challenge. It is an honor because I became part of this great team, which I know that has been carefully chosen in order to be able to fulfill the goals set out for the project. And it is a challenge because those goals are leading edge in such an important and complex subject as Climate Change Adaptation. Notably, climate predictions, Communities of Practice and liaising the different parts of the project through a risk management approach are just some examples of this.

Looking back over the past three years, I am impressed with the amount of knowledge produced and shared within BINGO. As BINGO is reaching its end, it is time now to reinforce externally what I also believe to have been one of the internal strengths of the project: communication!


Ana Luís,
EPAL, Portugal
 
 
 


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PROJECT OUTPUTS
 
 
 
 

Uncertainty and climate predictions in BINGO

 
 
 

Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic sources are causing global warming. The global warming signal in response to higher CO2 levels manifests itself as a long-term, gradual trend towards higher temperatures across the globe. Alongside this long-term trend, the climate system has its own natural variability, ranging on temporal scales from annual, to decadal, to multi-decadal. The magnitude of this “internal variability” can be particularly strong at regional scales and can act to either damp or amplify the long-term climate change signal.

The field of decadal predictions seeks to predict the near-future climate, up to 10 years in advance, by predicting/modelling this internal variability of the climate system. This is achieved by initialising an earth system model with observed states of the climate which are known to slowly evolve and exert control on climate – for example ocean temperatures, salinity and sea-ice cover. The “long-term memory” of such climate-system components is key to any skill which decadal predictions may have. The field of decadal predictions is still relatively new, but to date skill has been demonstrated in predicting, amongst other things, seasonal mean temperatures and cyclone frequencies.

The BINGO project utilises decadal predictions from the MiKlip project < www.fona-miklip.de>. Due to the inherent uncertainty in estimating initial conditions, a 10-member ensemble of decadal predictions is created by initialising the earth system model separately with 10 different sets of initial conditions. The sensitivity of the predictions to perturbations in the initial state help to indicate the levels of confidence in the predictions, i.e. predictions highly sensitive to initial perturbations will exhibit large intra-ensemble differences and hence lower levels of certainty. The ability of decadal predictions to provide skilful predictions of extreme events remains an open question.

For prediction of localized extremes such as intense thunderstorms, skilful prediction is particularly challenging and has not yet been demonstrated. This is because such events are so rare and small-scale in nature that any increased risk cannot hope to be captured in a 10-member, 10-year ensemble. The occurrence of such extremes at a given location is also influenced by factors whose variance may not be discernible at the decadal time-scale, or may not even be predictable at all beyond short lead times. For larger-scale extremes, such as continental-scale heat waves or droughts, there are stronger grounds to suggest that such events can potentially be predicted. This, of course, is predicated on the extreme in question having been caused, or at least influenced, by components of the earth system which vary on the decadal scale – which is not necessarily the case for all large-scale extremes.

 
 
 

BERGEN

 
 
 
Climate model data
 

The past few months in Bergen has offered a variety of weathers. As for all of Norway, the Bergen summer was extraordinary hot and sunny, with an average temperature in July of 3.4°C* above normal** and a precipitation amount of 50.7 mm* (corresponding to one third of the monthly normal**). As a consequence, the newly constructed beach spot located at the banksides of the fjord Puddefjorden (surprisingly) turned out to be money well spent - despite the fact that Bergen is known as one of the rainiest cities in Europe.

However, as autumn came, Bergen has why it has earned its reputation. Most inhabitants of Bergen will probably agree that nice weather is always followed with a pay-back of at least twice as much bad weather. And they might just be right. The summerly conditions experienced in July was followed by 345.2mm* of precipitation in August, a record-breaking 520.3 mm* in September, and 539.9 mm* in October. The intensity of the September precipitation in particular caused overloading of the drainage system, CSO discharge, flooding, material damages and reduced mobility in several parts of the city.

Recent research, including climate projections prepared in the BINGO project, indicate increased precipitation amounts in Bergen for the future. In the BINGO D3.4 report, the climate projections for the period 2015-2024, prepared by the FUB in WP2, were used as input to a hydraulic model of the combined sewer system in the Damsgård area of Bergen. The conclusion of this modelling task was that there is a risk of CSO events becoming more frequent and that the number of active hours for existing CSOs is likely to increase - if the system is kept as is. The good news is that the BINGO project not only identifies emerging risks, but also addresses adaptive solutions to how these risks can be counteracted!

* Numbers from www.yr.no

** Normal = Monthly average of the period 1961-1990

 
 
 

BADALONA

 
 
 
Badalona Heavy rain picture

During the year 2018 several flood events hit Badalona (Province of Barcelona) and several other areas of Catalonia. Generally, these events attract significant public and media attention. Are we experiencing more extreme rainfall events due to the effect of climate change during the last years?

The BINGO project helps us answering this question. The project provided two different predictions of future rainfall intensities useful for flood analysis: one for the period 2015-2025 and the other one for 2051-2100. The 2015-2025 prediction did not show significant variations of future rainfall intensities whereas the 2051-2100 predictions showed significant uncertainty with both an overall decrease according to the climate scenario RCP 4.5 and an overall increase according to RCP 8.5. Nevertheless, both of the latter climate scenarios showed an increase of rain event intensity up to 2-year return period. The project also analysed observed rainfall intensities in Badalona since 2013. Figure 1 (left) shows all the rainfall events in Badalona from 2013 that exceeded either the 20 or 60 minute rainfall intensity of 1-year return period. The selected indicators are useful for flood analysis and are common in urban drainage engineering. The figure shows that Badalona experienced rainfall events of intensities up to approximately 5-year return period since 2013. Moreover, the year 2018 experienced 4 events exceeding the 1-year return period. Figure 1 (right) shows a flood event that occurred in Badalona the 16th of July 2018.

Overall, the analysis of both the rainfall observations since 2013 and the 2015-2024 predictions of Badalona does not seem to show an increase of the latest year and near future rainfall intensities. However, there can be a significant increase for the period 2051-2100, particularly probable for events up to a couple of years return period.

Furthermore, the 2018 was an exceptional year that experienced 4 significant rainfall events. Moreover, since 2013 the observations did not show extreme events (extreme events could be defined as the ones having a return period higher than 5-10 years). This suggest that Badalona seems to experience flood hazard due rain events smaller than 5-10-year return period (that is usually the design criteria of the urban drainage system) and these few-year return period events are likely to get more frequent due to climate change.

 
 
 

WUPPER

 
 
 

On 29.05.2018, an extreme flood event took place in the city of Wuppertal, which was caused by torrential rains of short duration during a heavy thunderstorm season. This led to the highest peak discharge recorded at the city of Wuppertal in the last 100 years. This episode was followed by further intense precipitation, causing two more flood events (on 07.06.2018 and on 10.06.2018) on the cities of Wuppertal, Leverkusen, and Solingen.

In the frame of BINGO and for the case study “too much water” (addressed for the Wupper research site), 23 downscaled extremal episodes provided by WP2 were simulated for the Mirke Creek, which is an important urban sub-catchment within the city of Wuppertal. Only one of the simulated extremal episodes exceeded the 100-year flood (simulated episode’s time frame: 24.06.2023 – 28.06.2023). The interpretation of WP2 data should not be based on one-to-one correspondence; rather, the use of statistical approaches for the analysis of results is recommended. Thus, a simulated exceedance of the 100-year flood threshold indicates that in the next decade, this value will be surpassed at least once - regardless of the simulated extremal episode's time frame.

For this reason, it is assumed that the simulated extremal episode which exceeded the 100-year flood corresponds to the event that took place on 29.05.2018. In conclusion, it is considered that WP2 downscaled extremal episodes captured accurately extreme precipitation events.

The extreme summer of 2018 was characterized by abnormally high temperatures (especially in July and August) and little rain. However, the precipitation in May and June 2018 was also abnormally high.

In general, the summer months in the Wupper catchment are relatively dry. Even when it rains, the vegetation “takes” almost all rainfall through interception and evapotranspiration. As a result, a dry summer alone does not lead to water scarcity issues. On account of last year’s “wet” winter (2017-2018), we are not facing water availability problems, and, as mentioned, we did have lots of precipitation in May and June.

We do face problems though, when a dry summer follows a dry winter (or several consecutive dry winters). In conclusion, the problem would really rise if from October-November to ca. middle March - middle April (i.e., winter months), it does not rain.

 
 
 

VELUWE

 
 
 

The Netherlands had a particularly dry and warm summer this year. With an average temperature of 18,9 centigrade, it was the warmest summer since at least 1706. Precipitation was also extremely low, 105mm, compared to the average of 225mm.

According to local foresters the Veluwe resembled an African savannah. The nature reserve seemed to be in survival modus: hungry and emaciated animals were looking for food in the dried out forests. Trees were losing their bark and their leaves were brown, a color which is mostly associated with autumn.

Famers in the area have provided some of the animals with fresh water, by filling up dried out ponds. These also serve as an emergency water supply for the fire department, that is using small airplanes to detect starting forest fires at the Veluwe.

Tourism is doing quite well under these conditions. German tourists save themselves a trip to the coast since Veluwe campsites have started an online campaign and Dutch tourists consider the Veluwe an economic alternative to France.

Vitens, the public drinking water company, has encouraged their customers to avoid using too much water during peak hours. This seemed to be effective as long as the message was repeated. Not the availability of water, but the capacity of the distribution network during peak hours seemed to be the primary bottle neck for water supply.

Farmers are struggling throughout the Province of Gelderland. There has been a ban on the use of surface water for irrigation which is strictly enforced by the Water Authorities.

Also the streams with high ecological value suffered from drought. Some important streams lost their water altogether. Luckily there are also more robust systems where streamflow remained. When the water returns to the the dried-up streams, they can be repopulated.

For the Veluwe groundwater system itself the summer 2018 was not a big hazard, because the preceding winter was very wet. If the coming winter will be dry as well, the Veluwe system will get into trouble and the meteorological drought of 2018 will be translated into a hydrological drought in 2019. For the groundwater system, the lack of winter rainfall is more severe than a dry summer.

 
 
 

TAGUS

 
 
 
Tagus Data

In Portugal the last three-year period was an atypical dry one, in a sense that although only one hydrological year’s rainfall totals was considered dry, the dry sequence itself stretch over two hydrological years and its correspondent recharge periods (from December 2016 to February 2018).

The duration curves developed for the main water resource to Lisbon central and suburban areas (the Zêzere basin) based on the climate replicas for the period 2015-2024 are a good tool to assess the peculiar nature of the drought period experienced recently.

Based on the analysis of such curves (Figure bellow) it is possible to establish that although the driest observed values are higher than the range simulated on BINGO on 50% of the average yearly duration, the flows corresponding to the wet values (with 1/3 of the average yearly duration) were either equal or lower than expected in the simulated range values.

One must bear in mind that the time frame of 3-yr from the sample sequence bears not the same statistical significance as the 10-yr sequence replicas used in simulation.

 
 
 

TROODOS

 
 
 
Troodos
 

In 2018, Cyprus experienced its third drought year in a row. For the past three hydrologic (September-October) years, the total inflow into the main dams of Cyprus was just half of the long-term average. This led to severe restrictions in irrigation water supply for the agricultural sector. Also, large areas with rain-fed barley crops were shriveled by the droughts. Rainfall was 85% of the long-term annual average (425 mm) in 2015/2016 and 77% in 2016/2017, in the midstream area of Peristerona Watershed, one of our BINGO Watersheds along the Northern slopes of the Troodos Mountains. In 2017/2018 up till the end of April we had received just 219 mm! The prolonged drought reduced the transpiration and health of the pine trees along the slopes of the mountains. However, 96 mm of rain fell between 29 and 31 May, with a maximum intensity of 43 mm in one hour on 31 May. The resulting surface runoff filled up all seven recharge check dams in the downstream reach of the Peristerona Watershed. These recharge structures have been constructed across the streambed to capture part of the flow. This leaves more time for the surface flows to recharge the underlying groundwater formation. Thus, even in a dry year these check-dams can augment the groundwater resources on which the downstream communities rely for water supply. These highly variable rainfall and water resources conditions show the importance of long-term observations and modeling for climate change adaptation.

 
 
 
 
publication
Check out our publications and resources

You can check all of our scientific and non-scientific publications and all other resources,
in our website!

 
 

THE BINGO TEAM
 
 
 

Freie Universität Berlin

The Freie Universität Berlin (FUB) is one of the largest universities in Germany, awarded the status of excellence by the German Research Funding organization, DFG. The main research areas of the Institute of Meteorology (IfM) are weather forecasting, climate research, environmental impacts, remote sensing and the stratosphere. IfM is coordinating two modules of the German national initiative on decadal climate prediction (MiKlip). It has been and is also participating with several scientific projects on climate variability, anthropogenic climate change and extreme events. It has led an interdisciplinary project with hydrology on Large-Scale European Flooding under Climate Change, and is leading a project on the communication of probabilistic aspects of weather warnings. IfM has been a key partner in the German Collaborative Climate Community Data and Processing Grid projecs (C3Grid). IfM has ample experience in the fields of global climate modelling (past climate, climate scenarios and decadal forecasting), dynamical and statistical downscaling, and forecast skill estimation. It has been cooperating with hydrology to provide suitable meteorological modelling data for the simulation of flooding events.

FUB is the Leader of Work Package 2: Climate predictions and downscaling to extreme weather.

Freie Universität Berlin
 
 
 
 

Province of Gelderland

The main tasks of the province of Gelderland are related to environmental policy, environment, planning and the rural area. Furthermore, culture, cultural, and traffic and transport are areas of relevancy for the province. Under economy, employment and innovation, the province agrees its commitment to the economy, culture, cultural, and sports. This also includes the following themes: climate, energy and environmental policies. The eastern provinces in the Netherlands have built a strong knowledge and innovation position in the area of food, health, energy and environmental technology in the recent years. A position that has been created by the longstanding commitment of manpower and resources, and intensive cooperation between industry, knowledge and educational institutions and governments. Within the national Delta program, the province works with the national government and water boards to secure freshwater availability in the future.

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UPCOMING EVENTS
 
 
 
 
 
Project BINGO in 5 minutes!
 
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Take a look at this animated video introducing BINGO!
 
 
 
 
Finding solutions for climate change’s impact on water resources in Europe
 
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pictureWorking with a wide range of stakeholders and co-designing solutions: the embodiment of open science and open innovation. (…) We can expect BINGO to provide many of the answers we need to improve water management in Europe.”
EU Research Commissioner Carlos Moedas delivered a video message to BINGO – the Horizon 2020 project examining the impact of climate change on the water cycle in Europe. Watch Commissioner Moedas' full video message.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  Social Media   The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number 641739.  
 
 
 
This newsletter reflects only the author’s view and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
 
 
 
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